Financial Times

We have been witness of a volatile market crises, which started with the housing market, credit market and lately the banking crises. It is a three punch impact that started in 2007. I have seen many friends in corporate lose their jobs lately; friends taking jobs they are over-qualified for for less money to make ends meet. These are tough times, we can feel them in some way or another. Inflation is on the rise; a concerning fact is the government spending on companies that over-extend themselves; the aid received by some have created an intangible sense of security for some making buy other companies that have too much debt and toxic assets. Even banks are not excluded from these behaviours. Lately a Bank for banks has been liquidated. Many smaller banks will follow. This is a sign of times that will last quite a while. Our culture of over spending on credit and extending our means will suffer and have to be dealt with. I could see this happening upon coming to a robust, bull market. I am blessed to be a conservative investor. I believe in being one's own bank and diversified not only in the stock market but in tangible holdings. Always sell high and buy low. In a bear market, cash is king for those who have it. Even though the sense of fear instill by the public media has a greater impact and affect the consumer confidence; this freezes commerce, entrepreneurship and financial well being. Many over spenders will have to work longer. Generations X'ers and Y'ers will have to realign goals as many government programs will not be there for them. As a nation our financial strength will decrease in a way of a weaker dollar. Our only positive productive industry: Exports will suffer in a global market. New player will emerge and dictate how we do business in the future. Free trade and global competition will be fierce. Our efforts for job creating will be challenged by our socialism changes. Capitalism have endured and always have come on top. This time around we will be restricted on production, earnings as we will pay higher taxes. My only recommendation at the present time is to budget, restrict expenses and hold on for a wild ride. It will be a few years until we would feel relieve. Do your homework and prioritize what it is really important, not only for now but for the future of our children. So far it looks very bleak.

WHY SHOP LOCALLY

I am being trying to come up with a good blog for the past two weeks, being halted by business activities and new developments with Barca Financial Group, I am happy to say that all has been very positive and we are looking forward to relocating to a new permanent location. The purchase of this new location will provide our customers and Tucson a solid financial hub to address many services. We will be including credit card processing, book keeping, tax preparation, legal services, immigration services, secretarial services. This expansion will allow us to help our community for years to come. You plan and dreams come true. But like I said before you must have a plan. We have created a hub for "Financial Synergy"

Below is a topic and information about our local economy and what really means to shop with locally owned businesses and not franchises. It does affect us all.

Please read.


Why Shop Locally
The Power of Choice
Every time you make a purchase, you're exercising power of choice.
The choice is yours. You have the power to strengthen and enrich your community.
Did You Know…
For every two jobs national retailers bring to a community, three jobs are lost as a result of local businesses closing down.
When you shop locally owned businesses, your money is re-circulated over and over and creates up to 75% more tax revenue to our community and state.
Independent businesses raise the standard of living in your community because they take their profits and buy products and services from other local businesses, thus creating more and more tax revenues needed for the community to thrive.
Millions of dollars of tax revenue subsidies handed to chains by financially-starved local governments drain even more tax revenue from our community and state.
Blighted empty shopping areas are created in your community when chain stores re-locate to a more lucrative shopping center, or leave altogether. Literally hundreds of big stores are abandoned each year across the United States.
Independent businesses are unique enterprises that contribute to the character of our community by offering a more diverse selections of goods and services.
Independent businesses provide meaningful service with a personal touch. It matters to them that you are satisfied and will come back again.
Carefully planned predatory pricing practices have allowed national chains to establish virtual monopolies as they drive local competition out of business. And then they raise their prices.
You can make a difference with a few simple steps
Make a decision to find and patronize a locally owned business, wherever possible.
Dine at a local, independent restaurant and treat yourself to a unique and personal dining experience.
When you shop online with out-of-state companies, it doesn't contribute a dime to the local economy. So check for members who offer the same products, and some even deliver.
Look for the Arizona Chain Reaction / Local First Arizona logo when you shop and tell other independent businesses about Local First Arizona.
Use our business directory to locate businesses offering specific goods or services, or you can view a complete list of Local First Arizona member businesses and the categories in which they are listed.
Tell your associates, family, and friends what is happening and why. We all create our communities. Let's create strong and vibrant communities as a legacy for those who follow.
Support Local First Arizona by donating, or join us as a member business or friend.

Let us bring Tucson what it can be.

Hannibal

The Greening of America part 2

On my last blog, I briefly commented on the greening of America. This is a very special time for our future, since we finally, as citizens have felt the cost of dependency of scarce resources such as fossil fuels. When gas prices reached $4 + dollars per gallon, people started to conserve, indeed we did collectively. Why, because it hurt the bottom line, our earnings. This created a surplus on supplies that resulted in prices decreasing for a period of time. As a economist, we always refer to supply and demand, when demand decreased and oil production remain constant; it provided a surplus and thus lower commodity prices. Since then the OPEC group have decreased production thus lowering supplies to level fuel prices. It takes time to balance the supply and demand as the mechanisms take take to adjust to either side. One fact is that the more we conserve the better will be eventually. As green innovations and green government driven programs it will come with a price. Mostly, with any innovation requires time and money to make it profitable for companies creating new green products. (hint, invest in green research) Remember, Cells phones, computers, and televisions, these have gone through this process. We can get free cell phones, laptops for $300 or less and so on. The solar and wind industries will go through this phase; there is no free lunch in this life. So we all have to pay for it sooner or later. My take on the greening of America is to welcome innovation and support change. Going back to the Cuba peak oil crisis in the mid 1990's. This greening will be worthy news in the papers as the current financial market is nowadays. Future oil prices will be astronomical (scarce commodity) and commodities will be valued at imaginable prices. A good example of a scarce resource is gold; breaking the $1000 a troy ounce barrier (again). Oil prices for barrel will be approximately the same. Learning from the community spirit of the Cuban people during the 1990's as a micro example to what will happen to us; we can prepare smartly.
Suggestions: Buy land that you can use to grow crops, for personal and for profit. Utilize wind or solar power eventually, while converting existing energy use. Learn to farm with organic soils and products suitable to your area. We should go back to the traditional farming techniques. the soil will provide its own nutrients and greener harvests. This microeconomics philosophy is to help one's community. If you have children; propose degrees in agriculture economics. These will be the best paying jobs in America and the rest of the world. Currently there are only about 2 million farmers in the U.S. Remembering the philosopher Abraham Maslow and his Hierarchy of needs pyramid; the core elements are shelter, food, security, clothing at the bottom of the pyramid. Food will be paramound, who will be able to grow and produce food for commerce or consumption?. (locally) It may not come in 10, 20 or even 30 years, but it will come nonetheless.
Happy harvesting
Hannibal Chinchilla

The Greening of America

Bravo!.
The new administration on passing some legislature on green initiatives. They are a bit late; but it will be said that they try to reverse the course of our existance. It will take more than 8 years and perhaps decades to reverse or change the damages done by all of us. The greenning of America can somewhat reverse the decades of damage we have cause on the environment and the land. The biggest question we should all think about is what are we doing to help our future generations. What are we leaving behind: Scarcity, depleted or non-existent natural resources, polluted rivers, waterways, air pollution, trash and pestilence. One scary thought is that we all know that we are going to run out of oil; the predictions of when the OIL PEAK will happen varies; 15, 20, 40 or 50 years; nobody knows for certain. One certain thing is that it will happen. Maybe not to us but to our future generations. Sadly, this has happened once in our life time, many do not even know it happened; It happened to the island of Cuba when the Soviets (Russia) ended all supplies and financial help. Fuel, cooking oil, food, insecticides were not delivered to the island. This happened in the early 1980's. The average Cuban lost 18 lbs of weight in the first year. Food supplies were not available because there was no gasoline to run transportation trucks from the farmlands and agricultural areas. Imagine when this starts happenning in the US. Think of all the trucks that go 24 hrs a day taking, bringing food supplies to all the cities in the United States from their distribution centers. When, we run out of gasoline, how are we going to get our food? Great question. Well, the Cuban people aswered this question for us already. Stay tuned for next week's blog to find out. In the meantime think of ways to resolve this future change.

TRIPLE SOLUTIONS

Many people always wonder about the current situation; not knowing what to do and perhaps pointing the finger at others for decisions previously made. Buying that house, getting twelve credit cards, not saving for the emergency fund just in case you get lay off; procrastinating and again pointing the finger and blaming everyone else. I recommend taking ownership and responsibility. One that I do not understand is taking care of the families. I have been introduced to a more somber part of life, death. I experienced what families go through when someone dear dies suddenly and the sad part is that they have to ask for a collection to pay for the funeral and final expenses. This is very sad. On the other hand, I have experienced families that possesses an emergency fund, life insurance for the family and when someone dies they can cope with the loss more respectably and keep the family afloat. Only 30% of the population possesses some form of life insurance. Most have only a skimpy group insurance for $10,000 death benefit. That only covers final expenses, how about if you have young children and a spouse? what are they ought to do? For one start with a financial plan. this will help you analyse, how much you will need, but essentially what happens if you do not get up the next morning, how this protection will be used to fund your family's future and well being. No one likes to think about death. It is inevitable and it will happen. I have learned of a product that provides a triple solution to family planning. 1. it provides protection for all the members. 2. it provides a cash accumulation just in case an emergency happens (emergency fund) and 3. it can be used to fund a retirement account that provides tax-free benefits, now I like that. It covers three essential needs and it protects your love ones. It is sad that many learn this to late and when they become uninsurable. Goals without a plan are just plain dreams and wishful thinking.

Getting through the bad news

This blog is more about personal inventory. Previously, I talked about the power of positive thinking. During current times one ought to take a personal inventory of what is important personally and financially to stay positive. One step to deal with negativism is to steer clear of it. Spend one day listening to others, on the radio, TV, friends, colleagues etc. How many times do you feel drained after a listening session from these sources?. One ought to be able to block negativism and dwell on intangible issues. Everyone needs a paradigm shift; positioning yourself to be able to capture these opportunities are very important nowadays. I have been able to turn off negativism by doing more reading, researching and spending time with positive thinkers and alike individuals that perform and excel under any circumstance. Where do you find these individuals? well, if you listen and pay attention you will find them. I am engrossed in a book about peakers, people who peak at their own individual endeavors no matter what; they do not throw in the towel easily, in contrary, they analysed and focus on intangibles that of course are more rewarding and long lasting. We live in a short-term return on investment type of society. We like prompt rewards and easy ways to get what we want, when these expectations do not perform people jump ship and try other ways to get quick satisfaction. I am being vague about this rationale because you can suit it for your own reading and situation. Getting through the bad news is about changing and transforming one's expectations to focus on what is important; not what everyone else is doing about it. Be a leader not a follower; Take a personal inventory on the physiological needs, then your safety and protection (emergency funds), get involved in community services to build your self esteem and lastly work on your self actualization needs, what really makes you happy?

Hannibal

Let's make it happen!!

This is the year, the year we turn things around. Eagerness is always a powerful stimulant, New Year resolutions are in full swing, markets are settling down, the country braces for positive change. Although many folks fall short of expectations year after year. Why is that? Positive thinking is always good, but how good is good? I believe in the Law of Attraction and philosophies that promote this behavior. All is good as long as you "Make it happen". You may ask how do I make it happen? Simply by, putting in down on paper, having a detailed plan on resolutions and then creating an action plan. Action does not create itself. One must take control and make things manifest by following the steps, apply dedication, discipline, engage in positive activities, time and effort to the cause. These philosophies work as long as there is action taken. I also believe in visualization which is believing on the manifestation of a goal. One must imagine it first, if you have not experienced the goal, cause or resolution. For example, being debt free, having a robust emergency fund, and receiving quantities of pay for our efforts. Basically, if you have always being in debt, you must imagine not having any. Then when you are creating this action (imagination) with the help of your subconscious mind, you will start believing that you do not have any debt. This is tricky since many still have debt and I do not mean forgetting to pay your bills; I mean to engage in a positive action plan or financial plan to aid you. By putting a plan together to lower debt and becoming debt free and systematically work on it, you can manifest this goal. Always staying with the plan. Then you repeatedly visualize it, once you have a clear picture of your goal(s). Visualize it thousands of times everyday, every hour, every minute. Knowing and believing is your goal, this is very powerful tool and things will start happening around you. Just the process of believing is challenging, since we live in a very negative world, we have grown up with this behavior since we were born; Are you parents positive? even if they aren't, we must change the effect of these actions. Take ownership and dedicate ourselves to our new year resolutions for good. Remember that, we are bombarded by negative thoughts all day long, our friends, co-workers, and our society as a whole is very negative. Take a look at the news, over 90% of them are bad news, that is what makes them news. Good news do not get air time or view as newsworthy. If you really what to make it happen, you must first need to change your behavior towards the way you think, act and see things around you. I always recommend minimizing TV watching, if you put a cost/benefit analysis to this behavior, you will see that we pay a lot for this action. Many hours of our lives basically wasted in nothing but entertainment. We do need entertainment with discretion. I am a recovered TV viewer, four years ago I took action and got rid of my TV viewing completely. I used to watch countless hours and glued to the TV set, I watched sports, specially on the weekends, I was a wiz for statistics, rankings on various sports. I watch these athletes make millions of dollars by performing on their sports. If I was a sports commentator and got paid for this viewing, then the benefit would of being amazing. But in reality it paid me $0 dollars after all those years. Afterwards, I became more productive and manifested more positive things in my life and never looked back; plus it saves the cost for cable television. A good exercise is adding all the hours per week you spend watching TV. Put a dollar value to each hour, let say you hourly pay rate. How much would that add to? The average viewer spends a minimum of 3 hours per day; that's 21 hours in a week is you disregard the weekends as leisure days. If you make $10 an hour, the cost would be $ $210 per week, $840 per month and $10,920 per year. This is substantial money if you would get pay for it. By altering your behavior to spend more on a beneficial activity, like reading a book, attending educational workshops, taking classes, getting in shape (lower health expenses on the long term). As you can see, small steps add up to really make things happen. Like I said before being positive is good, Are you really positive? Do you really believe you are positive? if the answers are "yes", then you are ready to take a productive action to make things happen for the better. These actions will pay off as long as you are really positive, not just words and saying it you are positive; but really envisioning positive things. So this year is the year to start thinking "really positive thoughts" and you will realized your new year resolutions, otherwise you will be making the same resolutions year after year. Winners dwell on their desires and not their limitations. So "Make it happen".

Hannibal Chinchilla
Barca Financial Group